Roto Addicts

by Don Finley

In the months long “derby” that was the Aroldis Chapman Stakes, the Cincinnati Reds were muddled in the rear with Minnie the Moocher and the other long shots.  They made a strong charge at the turn and signed the latest Cuban “sensation”.  Reports on the contract vary, but it appears to be a five-year, $25 million deal with a sixth-year option.  There was a snippet on Rotoworld:  Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported that Chapman’s new contract could become a three-year, $25.5 million dollar deal should he arrive in the majors by mid-May. Needless to say, don’t expect him to break with the big club come Opening Day.

Aroldis Chapman is 21-years old and stands 6′4″, 180 lbs., so we can go ahead and call him “gangly.”  When he defected from the Cuban team last summer and proclaimed his desire to pitch in MLB, the announcement was met with quite the splash.  As mentioned in an article by Jorge Arangure Jr. from ESPN the Magazine, he was “considered by many scouts to be the best lefthanded pitching prospect in the world.”  In the same piece, Buster Olney referred to him as “a lefthanded Stephen Strasburg.”  Conjecture was that he would command anywhere from a $30 million to $70 million deal to land his services.   The teams that were supposedly showing interest were the Yankees and Red Sox (of course), along with the Angels, Blue Jays, Athletics, Dodgers, and Braves.  There were other alleged suitors, but the Cincinnati Reds were never mentioned.

The Legend of Aroldis Chapman includes a fast ball that has touched the radar at 102 MPH with an MLB-plus slider.  He also throws a curveball, change up and a cutter.  The knock on Chapman to this point is that he does not have enough of a command of his pitches, particularly his fastball.  He also has been known to melt down when things don’t quite go his way (ala our boy Z in Chicago).  There is an excellent, comprehensive post at Baseball Intellect written by Alex Eisenberg, detailing a scouting report complete with stop action images depicting various arm angles.  One example is when he raises the point that Chapman’s fastball is consistently at a different arm angle than his curveball, and that he throws two different curves (one a slower pitch than the other), and that they too are at different angles.  It goes without saying that this will need to be corrected before Aroldis can expect to stand on the bump and fool big league hitters.  Chapman also has a violent delivery, which gives some pause as to his durability (a concern that Mr. Lincecum has helped to alleviate somewhat).

There is also a school of thought from scouts that Chapman’s most promising prospect would be to end up as a top flight closer, rather than pile up the innings as a starter.  In my opinion, he has the stuff and repertoire to be a successful starting pitcher at the big league level.  Regardless of what transpires, I love the signing by Walt Jocketty.  The club needs to continue to develop their rotation to complement the development of young bucks Volquez and Cueto.  It appears likley that Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo (or both) will be dealt before their contracts are up.  Perhaps Aroldis will be ready for his debut when that time comes.

As far as fantasy value is concerned, I wouldn’t take a flyer on him at the draft unless you are in a keeper league (or in my case, in a keeper league with a bunch of Cincinnati guys).  He shouldn’t have a season in 2010 where he posts sustained, solid numbers, but 2011 is a realistic possibility.  The tools are there and the upside is tremendous.