Roto Addicts

We’re taking our first stab at predicting the standings for the upcoming season (I have little doubt that we would have been on the forefront of calling the Rays’ march to the WS).  In a recent post, Rotations Ranked Here, we used the sum of the 2009 projected values for each team (CPV) to rank the starting staffs.  We thought it would be fun to take the same approach to arrive at the prognostications within each division, along with a few other factors.  You will see the CPV for the Teams’ hitting and SP.  You will also see indicators of + and a -.  The “plus” indicates at least a “B+” in that particular area, a minus at best a “C-”.  The indicators ‘D-UTG’ rates the “up-the-gut” defense (C, 2B, SS, CF), and TTL, of course, is overall D. Lastly, we have listed the “Plus Players”, those that should have an above average impact on their team.  There are 104 of those players on the list, and we will get into more of that in the comments. 

It’s on to the Senior Circuit, beginning with the Central Division.

NL CENTRAL

Rk	Team	H - CPV	H	SP CPV	SP	RP	RP CL	D UTG	D TTL	CPV	TM
1	CHC	85	+	40	+	+	+			125	+
2	CIN	65		28		-				93
3	STL	83	+	23				+	+	106
4	MIL	85	+	21						106
5	HOU	75		16			+	+	+	91
6	PIT	41	-	-5	-	-		+		36	-

The National League has only four Plus teams at this point, and the Cubs are the highest ranked of all the NL teams.  As you can see, the Reds are ranked below St. Louis and Milwaukee on the CPV meter, but we are picking them to finish second.  We will explain.  Here we go . . .

Chicago Cubs:  Though the Cubs have a Plus starting rotation, none of their starters is a Plus player.  You have Rich Harden as the #1.  While there has been no pronouncement of injury, the club is concerned about his shoulder.  30 starts is by no means a given.  Ryan Dempster is coming off of a career year, one that will be very difficult to repeat.  While we expect a little regression, he has been consistent enough to post 13 wins and provide stability in the rotation.   Ted Lilly, with a surprisingly good K/IP rate of .88, is a solid #3 (it would be nice if he could keep the ball in the yard with a bit more regualarity).  Next up is Carlos Zambrano, who could either continue his decline or provide a pleasant surprise to the team, as it seems that Lou & Company have tempered their expectations.  He certainly doesn’t look like ace material anymore.   Sean Marshall rounds out the rotation.  He has decent peripherals but tends to implode (like any red-blooded #5 is wont to do).  So you have a few question marks, but overall a solid staff.  The bullpen, anchored by Carlos Marmol and the presumed closer (unless Lou loses patience with him and Kevin Gregg gets the job), looks to have the strongest pen in the division.

Aside from Marmol, the Plus players for the Cubs are Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto.  Derrek Lee looks more and more like a good glove, average hitter kind of guy.  Their lineup has a CPV of 85, which is tops in the division.  There is one other key reason to like them in this mediocre division:  Along with the Dodgers, they have the weakest schedule in the National League according to our raw, unscientific formula, with only 23 games against Plus teams (the Marlins, by comparison, have 60 games against the strongest teams). 

Did you know?  The Cubs’ K/IP rate of .87 was tops in MLB in 2008.  Rich Harden’s 1.05 rate was tops among all starters.

We predict that . . . Jeff Smardzija will be in the Cubs’ rotation by August 1.

Cincinnati Reds:  We like the direction that Walt Jocketty is taking this team.  The Reds are working to shore up their bullpen and defense in addition to their fine young starting pitching.  Defensively, they are strong up-the-middle (if Alex Gonzalez is playing and healthy).  Hey, I was right there bashing the signing of Willy Taveras (still don’t like him as the leadoff guy), but it does make their OF look a whole lot better with his wheels chasing down fly balls.

The top three starting pitchers, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto should be rock solid.  We are quite concerned (as surely are the Reds) about Volquez and Cueto being the top dogs in the Dominican Republic WBC rotation.  This is a team that could go far in the tournament, and every time one of these guys takes the hill, it’s a risk.  They have a minus bullpen now, but we believe that it will be at least average by the All-Star break.  The Reds have three Plus players in Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Harang.  Joey Votto is on the cusp of busting out as a true power/BA talent, but he’s not quite there yet.

There is a new energy in Cincinnati.  They have transformed from a team with two established stars, one past his prime and one single-dimensional, to one built around the uber-prospects.  They have gone from station-to-station with the stolen base sprinkled in, to one of speed, pitching and defense.  We don’t believe that they will make the playoffs, but we do believe that they will overachieve.

We predict that . . . Aaron Harang will return to his 2007 form and win 16 for the Reds with 200+ strikeouts.

St. Louis Cardinals:  One thing you can pretty much count on . . . The Cards will be better than you think they should be.  Tony LaRussa is the best manager at eking every drip of productivity out of his 25-man squad since Whitey Herzog.  They have three Plus players in Ryan Ludwick, Adam Wainwright, and the great Albert Pujols.  Do you remember last year about this time when Sir Albert kept dropping down the draft boards because of concerns about his getting shut down over his elbow?  All he did was put enough numbers up to grab the NL MVP.  I highly doubt that his pain went away.

The Cardinals have made one of the more interesting spring moves by trying Skip Schumaker at second base, opening an OF spot for the highly touted Colby Rasmus.  From a fantasy standpoint, Schumaker provides for at minimum an average MI instead of a below average OF.  The biggest question mark in the lineup is, of course, Troy Glaus, who is recovering from shoulder surgery and is expected to miss at least the first month of the season.  With C Yadier Molina, SS Khalil Greene, and CF Rick Ankiel, they have a solid UTG defense (as long as Schumaker holds his own, and so far he is).  There overall D is very strong as well.

Pitching is where things get fuzzy.  After Wainwright, there is the perpetually recovering Chris Carpenter, as sure as they get when healthy, but has thrown just 21.7 innings in the past two years (hey, talk about saving that wear and tear on the arm!).  So far, so good . . . but I have him as a $3 keeper on my prime team and am prepared to hit the drop button on a moment’s notice.  Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro, and Kyle Lohse all have K/IP rates south of .7/IP, placing a whole lot of stress on the defense all season long.    To put this in perspective, the Cardinals project to have 200 fewer strikeouts than the division favorite Cubs in 2009.  That is 1.2 outs every game that they have to get relying on their defense and hoping that the ball doesn’t find the hole.  As far as the bullpen is concerned, one would think that they would be feeling pretty good about it after the flashes of brilliance shown by both Chris Perez and Jason Motte last season.  It is apparent that the team is not ready to go there.  We have heard LaRussa muse about trying Carpenter out as the closer, and the odd rumor surfaced this week that St. Louis would like to entertain Pedro Martinez in the role.  While the bullpen in total looks solid with these two and Ryan Franklin in the fold, the closer spot is far from being settled.

The pitching will keep the Cardinals from threatening the Cubs and their deep staff.

Did you know?  The Cardinals were 12th in MLB in runs scored but 5th in OPS (.783)?  You need to do a better job of getting those runners home, Boys.

We predict that  . . . Pujols will bring home still another MVP award in 2009.

Milwaukee Brewers:  The Crew is in the same boat as the Blue Jays, except that the Jays did not lose their #1 starter, just #2 through #4.  The Brewers lost their two top dogs.  CC Sabathia’s departure was pretty much expected, and Milwaukee is probably thanking their lucky stars that Ben Sheets did not accept their offer, as he is out until after the All-Star break.  So where does that leave the 2009 pitching staff?

For starters, we are huge fans of Yovani Gallardo.  He is the real deal.  He appears to be healthy, so we are confident in proclaiming him as one of the Brewers’ Plus players.  The rest of the rotation is quite shaky, especially when you measure it against the division rival Cubs and Reds.  Ken Macha is talking about starting Jeff Suppan on opening day (hopefully, one of his 10 projected Heinous starts will not happen on the first day of the season).  You have Dave Bush, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra.  We like Parra a whole lot.  He has four quality pitches that he can throw, and he can bring mid-90’s heat when needed.  The other three though are candidates for implosion.  That being said, they are also capable of putting together quality efforts.  They are just far too inconsistent.  The CPV for the rotation is 21, which is 9th in the NL.  Trevor Hoffman can’t break a pane of glass with his fastball anymore, but he still sports a K/IP rate of .85.  Nice pickup for the Crew.

The Brewers’ lineup has a solid CPV of 85, led by Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and JJ Hardy.  Mike Cameron and Corey Hart are not easy outs either.  Rickie Weeks has the tools to put it together, and his age and league tenure point toward this being a possible breakout year.  The bullpen and defense are average at best. 

We predict that . . . 2009 will be a down year for Milwaukee.  They have some good talent on the farm, so they should bounce back in 2010.  Like Toronto, you don’t lose the quality pitching that they did without consequences.

Houston Astros:  Roy Oswalt is as tough as nails and maybe as good as it gets in ‘09, but the remainder of the staff has a CPV of -3 (Wandy Rodriguez 2, Mike Hampton -1, Brian Backe -2, Brian Moehler -2).  Rodriguez could be productive and already performs steadily at home.  Their bullpen aside from the saves-machine Valverde is a C-. 

From a hitting standpoint, the ‘Stros lineup gets very spotty once you get past Plus players Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Hunter Pence.  Miguel Tejada has seen as steady a five-year decline as you will see from anyone.  None of the starters save the top three are projected to have an OPS north of .750.  That’s weak.

Did you know?  The Astros’ road OPS in 2008 was a paltry .700 (MLB average was .730).

We predict that . . . Backe, Hampton, and Moehler will all be out of the rotation by season’s end.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  Their hitting CPV of 41 is “underpassed” only by the meager lumbering of the Giants and Padres.  The pitching CPV of -3 is better than the Nationals and Rangers, but that’s about it.

Nate McLouth busted out in 2008 with a nice combination of power and speed to establish himself as a Plus player (the only one on the Buccos).  The Pirates’ starters had a collective ERA of 5.05 last season.  Ian Snell and Paul Maholm came up to the big leagues with plenty of promise (as did Zach Duke), but none of this potential has been realized.    They all underachieved last season, so expect some improvement.  Aside from Matt Capps, a fairly reliable closer, there is no one on the pitching staff that is worthy of having on your team.

Did you know?  The Pirates led the NL with 657 BB last season.  The Giants were next with 652, but SF had 277 more strikeouts.

We predict that . . . 2008 first round draft pick Pedro Alvarez will be manning 3B for Pittsburgh by the All-Star break.  He is a power freak.  You should pick him up when you can.